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AUD/USD binary signal - Australia Retail Sales - 09 May 2017

Signal details
Entry Price: 
0.7340
Close Price: 
0.7342
Direction: 
High
Expiry Time: 
20:00 GMT
Result: 
ITM
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Australia's retail sales figured released by the Australian Statistics Bureau (ABS) revealed that retail sales rose less than expected in March 2017. Missing forecasts of a 0.3% increase, retail sales fell 0.1% and marked a second month of declines after February's retail sales were revised lower from -0.1% to -0.2%. On a year over year basis, Australia retail sales rose 2.5%. The data saw the Australian dollar continue to weaken, now posting declines for the second consecutive day with prices trading near a 4-month low.

However, analysts warn that the surprisingly weak retail sales in March was n the account of the cyclone Debbie which dampened consumer spending significantly. For example, Queensland which bore the brunt of the cyclone saw sales contract as much as 1.3% during the month, whereas in other parts of Australia, retail sales expanded at a pace of 0.2%.

The weak retail sales figures spurred a cut in the forecasts for the nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter. The Australian economy is now expected to rise just 0.3% in the first three months ending March, down from the previous forecasts of 0.4%. This comes on account that despite some positive tailwinds developing for the consumers and higher than expected growth in the labor market, the soft retail sales spending is expected to dampen the economic outlook and could, to an extent impact the consumer prices as well.

Later in the day, the annual budget from Australia will also be released. The data is unlikely to directly impact the exchange rate but could bring about some volatility. A disappointing budget will no doubt continue to maintain the bearish bias in the Australian dollar against a stronger U.S. dollar gains.

In consideration of the above, today's binary options trading signal is a recommendation to look for daily CALL options near 0.7340 for a 20:00 GMT expiry time. The CALL option is recommended as we expect that the current bearish momentum in AUDUSD will push the currency pair lower. However, this should ideally see prices hitting support near the 0.7340 level off which we can expect a near term bounce in prices.

Disclaimer: The article is written for informative purposes only and it is not financial advice. The author does not have any position in the currency pairs mentioned, and no plans to initiate a position. He wrote the article himself and expressed his own opinions. He has no business nor personal relationships with any mentioned government entities or stocks. Readers should not treat any opinion expressed by the author as a specific inducement to make a particular trade or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion.