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AUD/USD Forecast 21 July 2016

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AUD/USD Forecast 21 July 2016
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The Aussie continues to react to the situation in adjacent markets.

The US dollar has weakened due to rising oil prices helped the Australian dollar to strengthen.

The Iron ore added 0.23%, the copper has risen by 0.42%. The wheat adds 0.33%. The last two weeks in Australia, we are witnessing the intensification of mergers/acquisitions process, increasing the interest in the stock market and its national currency.

However, the think that at the meeting, which will be held on August 2 the RBA will lower rates, has a major pressure on the Aussie.

We consider the scenario of growth AUD/USD to the area of 0.7520 - 0.7550. After that, the pair may turn on the back of positive US data and approach of the RBA meeting.

In the US, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is expected to grow from 4.7 to 5.1 in June. The house price index could show growth by 0.4%. The existing home sales are expected to slightly lower, to 5.48 million against 5.53 million.

How to trade

We consider two scenarios. The first is that AUD/USD falls below 0.7470. In this case, we would buy Put options. The second scenario, the pair AUD/USD rises to the area of 0.7520 - 0.7550 and reverse. In this case, we would buy Put options after the reversal.

Expiry time: 20:00

Disclaimer: The article is written for informative purposes only and it is not financial advice. The author does not have any position in the currency pairs mentioned, and no plans to initiate a position. He wrote the article himself and expressed his own opinions. He has no business nor personal relationships with any mentioned government entities or stocks. Readers should not treat any opinion expressed by the author as a specific inducement to make a particular trade or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion.

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