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AUD/USD Forecast 26 July 2016

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AUD/USD Forecast 26 July 2016
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The Aussie shows growth on a back of falling commodity markets.

The growth of the Australian dollar on the back of falling commodity markets seems strange. However, we are inclined to believe that it is caused by the closing of short positions.

Today, data on the trade balance of New Zealand went weak however the "Aussie" has ignored it.

Yesterday the oil fell by 2.89%, all non-ferrous metals, industrial and precious, are reduced. During the Asian session, the wheat is losing 0.64%. However, the iron ore added 0.2% yesterday (56.15 US dollars per ton).

Investors do not doubt that in August, the RBA cut rates - market expectations are 67%.

In the US, new home sales are expected at 560K in June against 551K in May. The services PMI is expected to grow 52.0 vs. 51.4 previously. The Richmond manufacturing index may rise from -7 to -4. The CB consumer confidence is expected to decrease from 98.0 to 95.6.

We are waiting for the reversal and reducing the pair AUD/USD to the range of 0.7370-0.7400.

How to trade

We would buy put options if the pair AUD/USD descends below 0.7510.

Asset: AUD/USD
Direction: Put
Target price: 0.7510
Expiry time: 20:00 GMT

Disclaimer: The article is written for informative purposes only and it is not financial advice. The author does not have any position in the currency pairs mentioned, and no plans to initiate a position. He wrote the article himself and expressed his own opinions. He has no business nor personal relationships with any mentioned government entities or stocks. Readers should not treat any opinion expressed by the author as a specific inducement to make a particular trade or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion.

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