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AUD/USD Forecast 26 May 2016

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AUD/USD Forecast 26 May 2016
5/5 of 3 ratings

Today's Australian data disappointed the market.

Data on investments were worse than the negative forecasts. In the 1st quarter, the building capital expenditure decreased by 7.9% against the forecast of -3.0%, the machinery capital expenditure decreased by 0.5% (but the forecast was even worse -2.0%). The private new capital expenditure decreased by 5.2% against the forecast of -3.0%.

The United States will present data on Core Durable Goods Orders, which are expected to increase by 0.3% compared to -0.2% in March. The weekly jobless claims are expected to decrease from 278K to 275K. The pending home sales are expected to increase by 0.6% -0.7% in April.

Also, two representatives of the Federal Reserve - James Bullard and Jerome Powell will have speech. Bullard has previously hinted that the summer rate hike is not accepted. Tomorrow we will see the 2nd estimate of GDP which can make the summer rate hike clear.

Today and tomorrow in the case of the good US data the pair AUD/USD will probably decrease in the range of 0.7070-0.7110. In the case of the weak data, we also expect the corrective recovery towards 0.7390.

How to trade

We would buy put options if the pair falls below 0.7165. The short-term upward movement, as well as the consolidation, is possible in the range of 0.7222 - 0.7246. We would buy call options if the pair rises above 0.7222.

Expiry time: 20:00 GMT

Disclaimer: The article is written for informative purposes only and it is not financial advice. The author does not have any position in the currency pairs mentioned, and no plans to initiate a position. He wrote the article himself and expressed his own opinions. He has no business nor personal relationships with any mentioned government entities or stocks. Readers should not treat any opinion expressed by the author as a specific inducement to make a particular trade or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion.

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