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AUD/USD Forecast 28 Apr 2016

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AUD/USD Forecast 28 Apr 2016
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The Aussie lost more than 150 points on a back of weak data

Yesterday the Australian data were surprisingly lower than expected. This caused a sharp decline and the pair AUD/USD lost more than 150 points yesterday.

All this happened due to rising expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will go to the additional easing of monetary policy due to the low price pressure.

But after such an impressive fall we should understand "what's the next". Now, the Reserve Bank of Australia may soften the economy. However, it should be understood that the data could be skewed because of the sharp rise in the Australian dollar and the very low oil prices. The second quarter could clarify everything.

Today, other indicators haven’t been better than yesterday. The export price index decreased by 4.7%. The import price index decreased by 3.0%.

Today, it is worth to pay attention to the US GDP data. In the first quarter, the first estimate is 0.7% compared to 1.4% in the 4th quarter.

How to trade

We expect the consolidation in the range of 0.7550-0.7640, with the next decrease to 0.7490. We would buy put options if the pair falls below 0.7609.

Asset: AUD/USD
Target price: 0.7609
Close price: 0.7627
Direction: Put
Expiry time: 20:00 GMT

Disclaimer: The article is written for informative purposes only and it is not financial advice. The author does not have any position in the currency pairs mentioned, and no plans to initiate a position. He wrote the article himself and expressed his own opinions. He has no business nor personal relationships with any mentioned government entities or stocks. Readers should not treat any opinion expressed by the author as a specific inducement to make a particular trade or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion.

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