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AUD/USD Forecast 6 May 2016

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AUD/USD Forecast 6 May 2016
4.7/5 of 3 ratings

We expect continuation of the Australian dollar weakening

In today's monetary policy report, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its inflation forecast to 1.0-2.0% for the current year against the previous forecast of 2.0-3.0%.

And on this basis, he warned about the possibility of another rate reduction that is fully consistent with the concept of interest rates of the leading Central Banks.

Yesterday the "Aussie" frostily reacted quite positive trade balance data.

Today the NFP data will be the main event of the trading say. The Change in Nonfarm Payrolls is forecasted to 200K - 203K against 215K in March. The unemployment rate is expected unchanged at 5.0%. The average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3%.

If the figures are better than expected, it will certainly be a positive signal for the US dollar. We even consider a much better scenario for nonfarm - artificially inflated to shift market expectations.

We expect the continuation of the Australian dollar weakening, possibly to 0.7240. But at the weekend, China publishes its macroeconomic data, so on Monday, we may see the correction.

How to trade

The short-term downward movement is possible in the hallway 0.7381 - 0.7351. If the pair manages to go below, it falls in the area of 0.7294. We would buy put options from the current level.

Expiry time: 20:00 GMT

Disclaimer: The article is written for informative purposes only and it is not financial advice. The author does not have any position in the currency pairs mentioned, and no plans to initiate a position. He wrote the article himself and expressed his own opinions. He has no business nor personal relationships with any mentioned government entities or stocks. Readers should not treat any opinion expressed by the author as a specific inducement to make a particular trade or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion.

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