NFP will determine the further movement of the EUR/USD
Yesterday the pair EUR/USD was able to reach a high of 1.1411. Last time the pair EUR/USD reached this maximum in October 2015.
However, the pair EUR/USD failed to gain a foothold at this level and finished trading at 1.1378. The EUR/USD may try to do it today. If we see the disappointing data on the Non-Farm Payrolls, the pair could rise to the 1.1470 area, and possibly to 1.15.
It should be noted that the likelihood of this scenario is high, especially when the Euro is oversold. EUR/USD will be able to return to the area of 1.1320 and below only in case of strong nonfarm data.
The growth should be recorded not only in NFP but in the average hourly earnings. If at least one of the components would be below expectations, the market will actively consider the fact that we should not expect rate hikes until the end of the third - the beginning of the fourth quarter.
How to trade
We would buy CALL options if the pair EUR/USD rises above the level of 1.1401.
Target price: 1.1401
Close price: 1.1389
Expiry time: 20:00 GMT