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GBP/USD Trading - US industrial production - 16 Nov 2016

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GBP/USD chart 16 Nov 2016
4.7/5 of 6 ratings

Yesterday GBP/USD reached a low of 1.2377, but closed trading at 1.2449

In the UK, the core CPI fell from 1.5% y/y to 1.2% y/y in October, against the forecast of 1.4% y/y. The total CPI fell from 1.0% y/y to 0.9% y/y. The retail prices remained unchanged, 2.0% y/y, but the forecast assumed the growth to 2.2%.

Yesterday the strong US data on retail sales in October did their job.

The retail sales grew by 0.8% against the expectations of 0.6%, the core index rose by 0.8% against the expectations of 0.5% - this is the biggest gain this year. The NY Empire State Manufacturing index increased from -6.8 to 1.5 against the forecast -1.5. The business inventories increased by 0.1%, hence the forecast for GDP in the 4th quarter increased to 3.3%.

The member of the Fed Daniel Tarullo said about the possibility of the rate hike in December. Today the main event will be the US industrial production US in October, the forecast is 0.2% after 0.1% growth in September. The capacity utilization rate is expected to increase from 75.4% to 75.5%. It seems that US industrial production is recovering.

In the UK, the claimant count change could increase by 1.9K but the unemployment rate is expected unchanged, 4.9% and the average wages can add 2.3% over the past three months.

How to trade binary

The short-term movement is expected in the range of 1.2389 - 1.2356, the breakdown of the lower limit will cause the movement to the level of 1.2301, consolidation around this level. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.2500 - 1.2530, the breakout of the upper limit will lead to a deep correction.

We would buy Call options if the pair GBP/USD increases above 1.2500. We would buy Puts if GBP/USD declines below 1.2389.

Expiry time: 21:00 GMT

Disclaimer: The article is written for informative purposes only and it is not financial advice. The author does not have any position in the currency pairs mentioned, and no plans to initiate a position. He wrote the article himself and expressed his own opinions. He has no business nor personal relationships with any mentioned government entities or stocks. Readers should not treat any opinion expressed by the author as a specific inducement to make a particular trade or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion.

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