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USD/JPY Forecast 14 June 2016

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USD/JPY Forecast 14 June 2016
5/5 of 3 ratings

The pair USD/JPY pair has been trading in the range of 107.84 - 106.00 for a week.

Yesterday's BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions showed -11.1 vs. the forecast of -2.1.

The Chinese data also pressured the Japanese yen. In China, the retail sales decreased from 10.1% to 10.0% y/y. The industrial production showed zero growth at the forecast of 6.0%.

Today the Japanese Nikkei225 has lost 1.05%. The industrial production data showed 0.5% against the forecast of 0.4%. The capacity utilization coefficient lost 1.0%. After this news, the Nikkei225 jumped by 0.45%.

The Japanese yen is waiting for the US data. In May, the retail sales are projected to grow by 0.3% against the previous 1.3%. The core retail sales: 0.4% after 0.8% in April. The import price index is expected to grow by 0.7% vs. 0.3% last month. All these indicators directly affect the GDP and may cause the revision of the forecast for the 2nd quarter, which stands at 2.5% now.

But traders are unlikely to trade actively before the Fed decision. So, we expect the sideways moving.

How to trade

We would buy put options if the pair USD/JPY falls below 105.55. In this case, we expect the movement to the level of 105.20. We would buy call options if the pair rises above 106.35.

Expiry time: 20:00 GMT

Disclaimer: The article is written for informative purposes only and it is not financial advice. The author does not have any position in the currency pairs mentioned, and no plans to initiate a position. He wrote the article himself and expressed his own opinions. He has no business nor personal relationships with any mentioned government entities or stocks. Readers should not treat any opinion expressed by the author as a specific inducement to make a particular trade or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion.

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