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AUD/USD Forecast 22nd of June 2016

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AUD/USD Forecast 22nd of June 2016
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AUD/USD testing above 0.7500 again

The AUD/USD pair has been attempting another leg higher as global risks recede before the day of the Brexit referendum. The Australian currency has been trading substantially higher for the past hour, but this is no warranty of an arrest to the rally to the upside.

Private polls for the British referendum could be resulting in a broad rally of risk assets which include the AUD/USD .

We are taking both sides of the equation and are looking for a trading opportunity here in the coming hours. For now the upside is possible, but only provided that certain conditions are met.

The AUD/USD pair has made its first attempt at above 0.7515, but it hasn't closed the hour above the chart on a sustained basis. This effectively means that the pair is getting a bit heavy, but doesn't mean that we won't find ways to profit on the test of these levels.

Australia is heavily depending on its exports to China and South East Asia, and prices for commodities have stabilized in recent days, which is positive for the AUD/USD. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar appears to be consolidating its recent gains and the EUR/USD is reversing course higher as of the past 30 minutes.

How to trade

In light of all factors we would be buying daily calls on this pair only if we see an hourly close above 0.7515. If that scenario happens we would be buying daily calls on the pair and looking for a rally to above 0.7530.

Alternatively, if we see that the AUD/USD charges on 0.7515 two more times and fails to close above 0.7515 on a sustained hourly basis, we would be buying daily puts on this pair.

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