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EUR/USD Forecast 12 May 2015

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EUR/USD Chart 12/05/2015
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Euro steady as Eurogroup indicates progress with Greece

The negotiations between the Greek government and its creditors are still continuing, while the imminent default of the country has been averted as it paid its $770 million tranche to the International Monetary Fund.

The EUR/USD exchange rate has stabilized after the Greek government and the Euro area's finance ministers have stated that some progress has been made in recent talks. The pressure on the exchange rate of the single European currency has declined somewhat.

The resulting rally may prove to be a great opportunity for a trade, provided that some conditions are met. Firstly we have to look at the charts. Seeing the euro rally towards the higher end of the spectrum raises some questions.

As we can see from the chart above, there is a solid resistance in the area around 1.1280. London traders have approached the level, however no conclusive break nor a rapid sell-off have been observed.

The main factor which is holding the single European currency in place for now is the supporting negotiations between the creditors of Greece and the country. We have also seen a set of positive leading indicators from the Greek economy, pointing to future growth.

The conclusion is yet to be seen, but if we have to make any calls, those would be to buy call binary options on the EUR/USD with expiration set for 20:00 GMT later tonight. The levels which we are closely going to watch are around 1.1230, as the perfect price.

Above there it would be very risky to buy calls, however if the pair goes above 1.1300, we would buy a daily put option around 1.1310. Looking ahead, if the pair manages a break above 1.1280 and stays above by the end of the trading day, we would likely be buying daily calls tomorrow, but... more on that tomorrow.

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