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EUR/USD Forecast 14 Dec 2015

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EUR/USD Forecast 14 Dec 2015
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EUR/USD is currently in a consolidation pattern

The pair is currently in a consolidation pattern above 1.0925 and today no major economic data is released so we expect choppy price action.

Two events can affect the Euro and its movement today: at 10:00 am GMT the Eurozone Industrial Production numbers are released (previous -0.3%; forecast 0.3%) and at 11:00 am GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech at a conference in Italy.

The Industrial Production is usually a low-impact indicator but values above expectations can take the pair higher (euro strength). As for Draghi’s speech, we don’t expect it to trigger strong moves but it should be treated with caution.

On the technical side, the bulls control medium term movement but lately they didn’t make any new advances and the pair has been drifting without clear direction. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average (blue line) is still above the 100 period Exponential Moving Average (red line) so we favour the bullish (up) side as long as the pair remains above the support at 1.0925.

If price action shows rejection once it touches the mentioned support, we expect a break of 1.0980 and a continuation into the bearish trend line seen on the chart above.

How to trade: Calls around 1.0925

Wait for the pair to descend first and place end of day Calls as close to 1.0925 as possible. If the pair doesn’t reach 1.0925 and instead bounces at the 100 EMA, Calls are still a good choice but it’s safer to buy lower.
A break of 1.0925 support would invalidate the scenario above and would open the door for end of day Puts.

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