Intro...
We've covered what's happening for the major currencies in the coming weeks. Read on to see what we are looking for.
Our Outlook
USD
Despite announcements of President Biden’s plans for another $2T stimulus package, the USD was still one of the weaker major currencies performing in the last week. However, economic data out of the US was mostly positive, with Markit & Services PMI data coming in much better than expected. In addition to that, the Crude Oil Stock data, Consumer Credit data, Producer Price data and Job Opening data was also positive. There was still some negative data that was reported in the last week from the US, such as the New Jobs data, which reported 744,000 initial jobless claims on top of the 3.734 million continued jobless claims. These figures reflect upon the current economic situation and show that the US is far from their outlook of positive forecasts.
In the coming week, watch for the CPI data on Tuesday (13/04), Retail Sales data on Thursday (15/04) and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index data on Friday (16/04).
One week forecast for the USD is bearish.
EUR
The EUR appreciated across most major currencies in the last week. The EU is still planning on blocking vaccine exports until European citizens are looked after, which has supported the EUR after weeks of downside due to continued increasing infection rates. Also supporting the EUR was the positive economic data from the last week, with the Investor Confidence improving greatly, having an actual of 13.1 vs the 7.5 forecast. The Markit Services & Composite PMI and Producer Price data was also positive. However, the unemployment rate data was worse than anticipated, coming in with an actual of 8.3% vs the 8.1% forecast.
In the coming week, watch out for the EU Retail Sales data on Monday (12/04).
One week forecast for the EUR is bullish.
AUD
Despite positive news about the Australia & New Zealand travel bubble, AUD was still a weak performer in the last week. Following last week's positive news was the RBA’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, whilst maintaining that they are keeping an eye on the rising house market. RBA’s Governor Lowe reiterated the outlook that wages growth and interest rates between 2-3% were essential to rate changes, which the RBA anticipates we’ll be expected to reach in 2024. Australian economic data reported within the last week was quite mixed, with the Services PMI data coming in below the 56.2 forecast, with an actual of 55.5.
In the coming week, keep an eye on the AUD Employment data on Thursday (15/04).
One week forecast for the AUD is bullish.
GBP
It was a quiet week for the UK in the last week, as the GBP depreciated across the board with little to no high impact economic events prompting any change. The Services PMI data that was released was disappointing for the GBP markets, while the Housing Price data that was released in the last week shows substantial growth in the UK’s housing prices. CFTC GBP positions indicated to GBP longs being trimmed by £5000.
In the coming week, there are no high impact economic events to look forward to.
One week forecast for the GBP is bullish.