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USD/JPY forex signal - U.S. Nonfarm payrolls - 09 Mar 2018

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The U.S. monthly nonfarm payrolls data will be released today at 13:30 GMT. According to the economists polled, the U.S. unemployment rate is expected to fall from 4.1% to 4.0%. This would mark a fresh low in the unemployment rate in a decade.

The economy is expected to add 205k jobs during the month of February. This marks a somewhat higher pace of jobs being added compared to the previous month. The average hourly earnings which form an important component of the nonfarm payrolls report is expected to rise only 0.2% on a month over month basis. This marks a smaller pace of changed compared to the 0.3% increase seen in January.

The U.S. dollar is expected to turn bullish if the payrolls report comes in stronger than expected. It could also cement the fact that the U.S. short term interest rates could rise at the March FOMC meeting.

The dollar was already seen trading stronger yesterday but most of the gains came from President Trump announcing the steel and aluminum import tariffs which was signed into law.

Fears of a global trade war in tit for tat responses from other countries sent the U.S. dollar higher. Only Canada and Mexico were exempt from the newly imposed tariffs.

Based on the above, the forex signal of the day is USDJPY. The currency pair was seen consolidating near the support level of 105.79 over the past few days. Any near term gains are expected to post a pullback.

Therefore we are looking to go long on USDJPY on a dip toward 106.32 with stop loss around 105.79 while targeting 107.50. We expect that the payrolls report could potentially push USDJPY to close higher on the day.

forex signal usdjpy 09 mar 2018

Disclaimer: The article is written for informative purposes only and it is not financial advice. The author does not have any position in the currency pairs mentioned, and no plans to initiate a position. He wrote the article himself and expressed his own opinions. Readers should not treat any opinion expressed by the author as a specific inducement to make a particular trade or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. All risks and coasts associated with online trading are your responsibility.